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Monday Morning Coup?

February 2, 2008

Violence can destabilize countries and regions very quickly. Only a week after the fradulent elections in Kenya, a quarter of a million people had been displaced and several hundred were dead. History shows that once the bombing and violence begins, it is very hard to stop. This is why I predict a coup d’etat in Chad by monday morning.

Earlier this week, chadian rebels crossed the Chadian-Sudanese border from Darfur, Sudan and made their way towards the capital of Chad, N’djamena. By Thursday they were fighting President Déby’s forces just 80 kilometeres outside of N’djamena. By Saturday morning, they had control of the airport and other parts of the city. Although French and American expats are getting on flights out of town, the rebels reportedly said they would abide by “international norms” and not harm the expats. The French Defense minister issued a communiqué today stating that French forces would not intervene, and stay neutral. However, French minister of State, Bernard Kouchner said that France would stand with authorities and the law.

In a bizarre turn of events, Kadhafi Libya’s chef d’etat (also infamously authored the Green Book) is talking to Déby and the rebels in hopes of securing a cease-fire. However, Le Monde reports that Déby has called up recruitments (article in french, unfortunately Le Monde has been the best source of news on the situation in Chad) from outside of the country. By monday morning, more fighting could occur in N’djamena between Chadian rebels and Déby’s reinforced troops or we could see a new Chéf d’Etat in Chad.

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